Pokémon 30th Celebration Has Great Pull Rates – Why is it Still So Expensive?
Pokémon TCG 30th Celebration pull rates are the best we’ve seen in a while. Yet fans are starting to notice something peculiar. Even as prices for Special Illustration Rare chase cards plummet due to incredibly generous pull rates, inflated prices for products themselves haven’t seen a drop. Indeed, they actually appear to only be going up.
30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box
ME: 30th Celebration
Market Value
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Perhaps the best indicator for this interesting trend is the 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box. Arguably the most popular product from the set released so far, the ETB started high, but has only gone higher days after the set’s worldwide release.
As you can see in the below graph, the average price for the ETB on the secondary market hit a peak in late August before dipping a bit. Now, it’s on a clear upward trend and almost at that prerelease peak once again.
Meanwhile, singles from the set have been doing the opposite. While many of the top 30th Celebration chase cards have stabilized following the release, as a whole they’ve plummeted pretty severely. Take for example the Mew ex Futuristic Rare.
Mew ex - 158/128
ME: 30th Celebration • Futuristic Rare
Market Value
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Once news spread of how relatively easy this card is to pull compared to expectations, its price dropped by well over $1,000.
Meanwhile gorgeous chase cards that would have been worth a fortune had they been released in other recent sets with much less forgiving pull rates are relatively cheap today.
Sylveon ex - 153/128
ME: 30th Celebration • Special Illustration Rare
Market Value
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So why is this? What is to blame for the glaring discrepancy between the general downward trend of 30th Celebration singles prices, and the general upward trend of 30th Celebration products?
There could be a few reasons to blame for this phenomenon.
People are chasing RGB Mew
Let’s start with one potential theory that would at least in part explain why 30th Celebration products are becoming more expensive while singles aren’t.
The most glaring reason could be this: one ultimate 30th Celebration chase card is still worth an incredible amount of money: RGB Mew.
RGB Mew is the hidden rarity card that can be found within Pokémon 30th Celebration booster packs. Although once thought to be a hoax, as more and more people pulled it, the inclusion was confirmed when the data was found on Pokémon TCG Live (the app used to play the Pokémon TCG online).
A direct nod to the earliest Pokémon Video Games, Red, Blue and Green, players of those games found a secret code for the mysterious Mew hidden within the Pokédex. They could even use special means to trigger the spawning of this hidden Pokémon in the games, or go to special events to have it activated.
It’s a very fun card chase mechanic to be included in Pokémon’s 30th Anniversary set. But it also could be to blame for why products are still going up in value post release.
Despite how bad the odds might be of pulling this Pokémon card (rumored to be 1 in 10,000), many won’t be thinking about the odds as much as the payoff. Indeed, one RGB Mew could bag you a handsome $4,000 or more on the secondary market (according to data found on Pricecharting.com).
Regardless of how well the Pokémon TCG has been doing in recent years, even highly desirable cards rarely (if ever) go for that much money straight out of the pack. While it’s a huge gamble, that alone could be the main driver for the still-hot demand for Pokémon 30th Celebration products.
30th Celebration is just a really fun set to open
30th Celebration Booster Pack
ME: 30th Celebration
Market Value
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The other option is people just really like this pack. Indeed, it’s the most fun pack opening experience I’ve had in ages, reminding me of some of my favorite special sets from the Sword and Shield era that also had fantastic pull rates – sets like Pokémon GO.
30th Celebration is so rewarding to rip and collect with incredible odds of pulling a hit that the set could just be experiencing high, organic demand. This demand is due to popularity rather than the expected card value-driven frenzy typical of most modern Pokémon TCG sets.
Market manipulation/lack of knowledge
The last possibility is really more like two possibilities that feel like they go hand-in-hand.
The first one is market manipulation aka “scalping.” While clearly the general chase card in 30th Celebration isn’t anything to write home about in regards to value, scarcity alone would be enough to see market prices steadily climb online.
If enough products aren’t being found anywhere or being bought up at alarming rates with the express purpose in mind to artificially drive up prices, then that would explain in part the odd disparity we are seeing play out before our eyes.
At the same time, many casual buyers are likely not checking daily updated market guides (like mine) to see how well 30th Celebration cards are faring on the secondary market. What they are seeing, however, are empty shelves at their local department stores. This feeling of scarcity might be creating FOMO large enough to impact purchasing decisions in a way that’s misaligned with what’s actually happening on the singles market.
Casual collectors also are probably less attuned to things like pull rates and the like, making them less likely to be impacted by news of a 5% hit rate on Special Illustration Rares against what it typically is in most modern Pokémon sets.
The greatest Easter Egg in 30th Celebration is its pull rates
Whatever the reason for the glaring discrepancy between singles prices and product prices, one thing is certainly true: pull rates have had a huge impact on 30th Celebration. While it may not be showing up in the products yet, it certainly is evident on the singles market – and became so essentially overnight.
While RGB Mew might have been the most physically visible Easter Egg included in the set, the insane pull rates for this set were the bigger surprise. They forever altered and shaped fan, collector, and investor perceptions of the set.
And while these generous pull rates feel good for a celebratory set like this, I wouldn’t expect them to stick around. Come November and Delta Reign, we’ll likely go right back to the likes of Pitch Black, and Chaos Rising.
Either way, 30th Celebration’s unexpected pull rates have certainly shaken things up for the hobby. The question now is: where will it all land?
